• Skip to main content
  • Skip to secondary menu
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer
  • Home
  • About
    • Our Mission
      • Political Islam
    • Areas of Expertise
      • Economic Warfare
        • Cyber Security
      • U.S. Policy
      • Anti-Corruption
      • Foreign Election Observing
      • Supporting Free Speech
        • Legislation
      • Impact of ACD’s Work
      • Free Speech Celebration, U.S. Senate
    • Board of Directors & Advisors
    • Our Team
    • Contact Us
    • Subscribe
  • Our Impact
    • Endorsements
    • Additional Praise
  • Media
    • Events
      • Coming Events
    • Radio
    • Television
    • Youtube
  • Publications
    • All Posts Archive
    • Articles
    • Books
    • Papers
    • Presentations
    • Recommended Readings
  • Free Speech
    • Legislation & Support
    • Impact of ACD’s Work
      • Free Speech Celebration, U.S. Senate
      • Some Congressional Testimonies
      • 9/2010: SPEECH Act Celebration
  • Economic warfare
    • The Impact of Purposeful Interference on U.S. Cyber Interests
    • Cyber/Space, EMP Insecurity- Current and Future Threats
    • The Existential EMP Threat
    • New Strategies to Secure U.S. Economy from Cyber Attacks
    • Economic Warfare Subversions July 9, 2012
    • CyberSpace Security – Papers And Articles
    • Cyber Security
    • Da’esh “lite” North America Islamist – Sources
    • The Muslim Brotherhood and Da’esh “Lite” in North America
  • Support ACD
    • Donate
    • Subscribe
    • Contact
American Center for Democracy

American Center for Democracy

  • facebook
  • twitter
  • youtube
  • linkedin
  • Free Speech
  • U.S. Policy
    • U.S. Foreign Policy
  • Political Islam
    • Canada
    • Hamas
    • Iran
    • Islam
    • Muslim Brotherhood
    • Palestinian
    • United States
  • Narco-Terrorism
  • Middle East Conflicts
    • Iran
    • Israel
  • Global Conflicts
    • China
    • North Korea
    • Russia
    • Ukraine
  • Soros
You are here: Home / Hezbollah / The Turks are Back*

The Turks are Back*

August 28, 2016 by Norman A. Baliey

Almost a century after the Turks evacuated the Arab Middle East at the end of World War I, they are back. Not just with bombing or artillery fire, but a full-scale, old-fashioned invasion of Syria. This, just after dismissing or jailing a very large number of soldiers, sailors and airmen and about a third of the active-duty general officers, all accused of having supported the recent failed coup.

What can Turkey’s President Recep Erdogan be trying to accomplish with this military action? Speculation swirls around the following possibilities:

  • Demonstrating that Turkey is still relevant in the region and that its army can still function.
  • Forcing the Kurds to withdraw east of the Euphrates.
  • Trying to offset the fading Iranian presence and the growing Russian presence on Assad’s side with a formidable force opposing Assad.
  • Making sure that the power vacuum created by the US is partially filled by Turkey.
  • Or simply doing what he claims to be doing, protecting the Turkish frontier from incursions from any source on the Syrian side (in this case, Islamic State).

There may be some elements of all these motivations behind the action, but the Kurdish explanation may well be paramount. Nevertheless, forcing the Kurds back over the Euphrates is a tacit acknowledgment that their presence east of the Euphrates is legitimate. As a result, the Turkish invasion may be seen in future as the definitive legitimization of a Syrian Kurdish autonomous region in the north-eastern corner of the country.

The likely result of the Turkish action will be to exacerbate the Balkanization of Syria, with Assad controlling the coast and parts of the west of the country, the Kurds controlling the north-east and a series of Sunni groups contesting the center.

And what about Israel?

Turkey’s armed incursion into Syria does not directly affect Israel, which in any case, has just ratified an agreement with that country to normalize relations. Maybe, just maybe, Jerusalem might be able to convince Ankara (in the light of their new improved relationship), to attack Hezbollah in Syria. After all, Hezbollah has been fighting for years on Assad’s side. Its definitive defeat would greatly weaken the Assad regime and help to force the Russians and Iranians to make some sort of deal whereby the Alawite regime would survive but without Assad. And Israel’s most dangerous current enemy would be greatly weakened.

Just a thought.

—

* Norman A. Bailey, Ph.D., is Professor of Economics and National Security, The National Security Studies Center, University of Haifa, and Adjunct Professor of Economic Statecraft, The Institute of World Politics, Washington, DC. He was formerly with the US National Security Council and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

* Published by Globes [online], on August 28, 2016

Filed Under: Hezbollah, Israel, Kurds, Middle East, Russia, Sunni, Syria, Turkey, U.S.

Primary Sidebar

ORDER THE SOROS AGENDA ...
Buy The Soros Agenda

Search ACD

Categories

The Soros Agenda

g. soros

Soros: The Man Who Would Be Kingmaker, Part I

Rachel Ehrenfeld & Shawn Macomber

Soros: The Man Who Would Be Kingmaker, Part II

Soros: The Man Who Would be Kingmaker, Part III

Soros: The Man Who Would be Kingmaker, Part IV

Spotlight

quote by j.woolsey obama signing Rachel's law chemical terrorism transportation terrorism nuclear threats on the rise islamist incitement winning the cyberwar gps concepts and misconceptions libel tourism

Tags

antisemitism Caliphate Canada capital punishment China Christians Daniel Haqiqatjou Dawah Disinformation genocide Hamas Iran ISIS Islam Islamic Party of Ontario Islamic Relief Canada Islamization Islamophobia Israel J. Millard Burr Jews jihad Justin Trudeau LGBT liberalism Liberal Party Muslim Brotherhood Muslims NCCM Norman Bailey Ontario Palestine Political Islam Quran Russia Salaheddin Islamic Centre Saudi Arabia Sharia Sol W. Sanders SOROS Syria Terrorism Toronto US women's rights

Footer

About ACD

ACD is a New York-based 501(c)(3) not-for-profit organization, which monitors and exposes the enemies of freedom and their modus operandi, and explores pragmatic ways to counteract their methods.

Endorsements

"The ACD/EWI ability to predict future threats is second to none"

- R. James Woolsey, former Director of Central Intelligence

- - - More Endorsements - - -

Follow ACD!

  • facebook
  • twitter
  • youtube
  • linkedin

Copyright © 2023 | The American Center for Democracy is a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization. Your contribution is tax-deductible to the fullest extent of the law.