• Skip to main content
  • Skip to secondary menu
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer
  • Home
  • About
    • Our Mission
      • Political Islam
    • Areas of Expertise
      • Economic Warfare
        • Cyber Security
      • U.S. Policy
      • Anti-Corruption
      • Foreign Election Observing
      • Supporting Free Speech
        • Legislation
      • Impact of ACD’s Work
      • Free Speech Celebration, U.S. Senate
    • Board of Directors & Advisors
    • Our Team
    • Contact Us
    • Subscribe
  • Our Impact
    • Endorsements
    • Additional Praise
  • Media
    • Recent Interviews
    • Events
      • Coming Events
    • Radio
    • Television
    • Rumble / Youtube
  • Publications
    • All Posts Archive
    • ACD Presentations
    • Articles
    • Books
    • Papers
    • Recommended Readings
  • Free Speech
    • Legislation & Support
    • Impact of ACD’s Work
      • FREE SPEECH Act Celebration, U.S. Senate, September 20, 2010
      • Some Congressional Testimonies
  • Economic warfare
    • The Impact of Purposeful Interference on U.S. Cyber Interests
    • Cyber/Space, EMP Insecurity- Current and Future Threats
    • The Existential EMP Threat
    • New Strategies to Secure U.S. Economy from Cyber Attacks
    • Economic Warfare Subversions July 9, 2012
    • CyberSpace Security – Papers And Articles
    • Cyber Security
    • Da’esh “lite” North America Islamist – Sources
    • The Muslim Brotherhood and Da’esh “Lite” in North America
  • Support ACD
    • Donate
    • Subscribe
    • Contact
American Center for Democracy

American Center for Democracy

  • facebook
  • twitter
  • youtube
  • linkedin
  • Free Speech
  • U.S. Policy
    • U.S. Foreign Policy
  • Political Islam
    • Canada
    • Hamas
    • Iran
    • Islam
    • Muslim Brotherhood
    • Palestinian
    • United States
  • Narco-Terrorism
  • Middle East Conflicts
    • Iran
    • Israel
  • Global Conflicts
    • China
    • North Korea
    • Russia
    • Ukraine
  • Soros
You are here: Home / ACD/EWI Blog / The Iran Deal Through an (Oil) Glass Darkly

The Iran Deal Through an (Oil) Glass Darkly

April 4, 2015 by Chris Cook*

The profit margins Big Oil requires are no longer to be made in Saudi Arabia but in Iran and Iraq. Once the US concludes a nuclear deal with Iran, Big Oil will see to it that it sticks, and Washington can turn its attention to the true cause of global terrorism – and its sponsors.

The over-riding principle of US geo-political strategy in the past 100 years is simply stated: energy security. Second only to this principle of security of energy supply is the securing of commercial advantage for US Incorporated.  Viewed through these dark lenses, US actions in recent times become much clearer.

The Oil Shock
Winding the clock back to 1973, the Arab oil embargo during the Yom Kippur War came as a complete shock to the US generally and to secretary of state Henry Kissinger in particular, who believed that this step would never be taken.  As a result of this embargo, the oil price quadrupled from US$3 to $12 per barrel by early 1974.

But as we now know from the then Saudi oil minister, Sheikh Zaki Yamani, while both the Saudis and the Shah of Iran were content for the oil price to fall back to $3, Kissinger prevailed upon the Shah to maintain the price at the higher level.

Why would Kissinger and the US have done that? Firstly, new oil production   in Alaska, the North Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico – which reduced US/UK reliance on the Saudis – was only viable at the higher price. Secondly, the US was able to pay for the oil with newly printed “petrodollars”, which it was agreed would be recycled to the US.  The genius of the strategy was that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) got the blame.

Fast forward
The George W Bush administration, particularly vice president Dick Cheney, had been convinced by the “Peak Oil” thesis to act to secure oil supplies for the US and did so firstly in Iraq in 2003. However, the planned follow up – “Real Men go to Tehran” – foundered as the US became bogged down in Iraq by Iranian-sponsored Iraqi resistance from 2003 onwards. In my view it came to a definitive end in a 2007 “Suez Moment” when China exercised an economic veto over this US adventurism.

Once this physical intervention had failed under Bush – who was a Big Oil president – US strategy changed upon President Barack Obama’s election in November 2008 on behalf of Big Money.  Obama entered office at a time when the oil price had spiked as high as $147/barrel in July 2008, only to collapse as global trade credit dried up during the financial crisis that year.

By the time of its meeting in December 2008, OPEC had already cut production by 2 million barrels per day, but the oil price had nevertheless continued to fall to $40/barrel. The announcement by OPEC of a further 2m bpd cut appeared to make no difference and the price fell to $35/barrel.

Enter the funds
At this point, Big Money came to the rescue of the Saudis. US investment banks directed passive risk averse “inflation hedging” investors in Exchange Traded Funds into commodity markets generally and the oil market in particular. The oil price re-inflated dramatically during 2009 despite a massive surplus of oil that sat in floating storage all over the globe until the winter of 2009.

For the next six years, the oil price never went below $80, and indeed spiked over $120/barrel, but somehow the US gasoline price always remained below the politically sensitive levels at which President Obama’s re-election could have been endangered.

In early 2012, I explained in Asia Times and elsewhere that a macro-market manipulation of the oil market price was under way, which was being supported by quantitative easing “money printing” by the Federal Reserve Bank. I predicted then that when QE ended – which took three years longer than I believed it would – the oil price would collapse to $45 to $55 per barrel.

Funding US shale oil
The combination of an oil price that was supported at over $80/barrel and massive credit extended to development of the US shale oil industry led to phenomenal growth in US shale oil production. This in turn added to increasing oil over-supply, as demand also fell both in the US and Europe.

When the QE tap was turned off in late 2014, the falling oil price then plunged precipitously, as I had forecast three years before, to as low as $45/barrel.

History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme. Funded by what was essentially an involuntary carbon tax paid by the developed world to oil producers, the US was at last able to make itself independent of Saudi Arabia. In my view, the new capacity of the US to act as swing producer in response to high oil prices represents one of the most significant developments in the history of oil markets.

US rapprochement with Iran
I believe I am probably the only Westerner to have made a presentation (on energy strategy last year) to Iran’s top policy-making body, the Expediency Council. As anyone will know who has been for any length of time in Iran and had the opportunity to meet the sophisticated and urbane decision-makers now once more in power after eight years of kleptocracy, Iran today bears no relationship at all to the myths and caricatures propagated in the Western media.

During the course of negotiations over some 18 months, the US has come to understand the reality of the current administration, and the fact that Iran, and its neighbor Iraq, are truly open for business. It is in Iraq, where Iran essentially exercises a veto over foreign adventurism, that the last and potentially most profitable great oil and gas development opportunities in the world remain.

Since Saudi Arabian oil is essentially played out and in run-off mode, the profit margins that Big Oil requires are no longer to be made there, but are instead to be found in the development of Iran and Iraq’s vast, relatively unexploited, and extremely cheap to produce oil reserves.

This is today’s great oil prize. It was why a delegation of 120 French businessmen was in Tehran when I was last there, and why Germany, Italy and other European countries are all over Iran like a rash.

It is also why the US is so keen to conclude a deal with Iran, and why Big Oil will see to it that once an agreement has been reached their tame Republican legislators will call off the dogs.

It also means that the US will before long be able to turn its attention to the true cause of global terrorism, which is of course the malign strain of Seventh Century Desert Islam currently laying waste to swathes of the Middle and Near East, as well as to its financial sponsors.

Through a glass darkly
So, viewed through the lenses of energy security and commercial advantage the behavior of the US and other players comes clearly if darkly, into focus.

I believe we will soon see a deal between the P5+1 (the permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) and Iran and the beginning of the relaxation of sanctions. But it may be a mistake to think that Iran and Iraq will flood the world with cheap oil when their interests are better served by conserving it.

Now that the full corruption of the Ahmadinejad years and its legacy in Iran’s oil bureaucracy are becoming daily more apparent, there is a growing realization in Iran that perhaps the only thing that saved Iran from the economic collapse inflicted on post-Soviet Russia were the US sanctions which prevented access to hard currency accounts in Switzerland.

Unintended consequences, indeed.

Chris Cook is a former director of the International Petroleum Exchange. He is now a strategic market consultant, entrepreneur and commentator.

Copyright 2015 Chris Cook. A version of this article was published by Asia Times

Filed Under: ACD/EWI Blog, Arabian Peninsula, China, Economic warfare, Economics, Economy, Energy policy, EU, Europe, European Union, France, Germany, Iran, Iran deal, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Mexico, Mideast, Nawaz Sharif., Nuclear Iran, Obama, Obama Administration, Oil, Oil market, Oil supply, Oil Trade, OPEC, Qaradawi, Russia, Saudi, Saudi Arabia, Shiite, Turkey, U.S., U.S. Foreign Policy, U.S. Policy, UAE, UK

Primary Sidebar

Spotlight

website capture islamist incitement quote by j.woolsey obama signing Rachel's law chemical terrorism transportation terrorism nuclear threats on the rise winning the cyberwar gps concepts and misconceptions libel tourism

Search ACD

Recent Appearances

[3/11/2025] Shaun Thompson Interview

[3/10/2025] Larry Conners Interviews Rachel Ehrenfeld

[2/3/2025] The Truth About George Soros - Grey Matter Podcast

[1/22/2025] Fighting Terrorism Funding - SAM Podcast

[1/8/2025] COUNTER NARRATIVE Interview on PATRIOT.TV

[10/2/2024] The Shaun Thompson Show: Dr. Rachel Ehrenfeld

[9/30/2024] Counter Narrative: Soros Power Grab: Media Takeover & Election Manipulation |

[8/28/2024] SOS Blinken warns U.S. allies that Iran may attack Israel in the next 24-48hrs

[8/9/2024] Purham & Associates Show Special Guest: Rachel Ehrenfeld

[7/26/2024] Dr. Ehrenfeld on The Andy Caldwell Show

[6/12/2024] Dr. Ehrenfeld on The Shaun Thompson Show

[5/29/2024] Interview on Bill Martinez Live

[5/24/2024] CAEF presents "Soros is No Dreyfus: The Soros Agenda to Change America & his Anti-Israel Crusade"

[5/16/2024] Dr. Rachel Ehrenfeld on Jayne Carol Tonight - Portland, OR

[5/9/2024] How deep do the Soros ties go?

[5/6/2024] Dr. Rachel Ehrenfeld: The College Intifada-How Jew Hunting Became a Left Wing Blood Sport On Campus

[4/15/2024] Dr. Rachel Ehrenfeld on The Vic Poricini Show

[4/11/2024] The Andy Caldwell Show

[4/10/2024] Always Right Radio with Bob Frantz

[4/3/2024] Kacee Allen & Rachel Ehrenfeld - The Pelle Neroth Taylor Show

[3/12/2024] Rachel Ehrenfeld | Gunther Rewind - Podcast on iHeart Radio

[2/18/2024] תעלומת ג'ורג' סורוס ותרומתו למאבק נגד ישראל - פוקוס על אמריקה - Podcast on Spotify

תעלומת ג'ורג' סורוס ותרומתו למאבק נגד ישראל - פוקוס על אמריקה | Podcast on Spotify

[2/7/2024] Are We in World War III and Don't Know It? - Laura-Lynn Tyler Thompson

[1/23/2024] The Chris Smith Show - TNTRADIO.LIVE

[1/22/2024] 'Soros Agenda' Author Warns That Global Elites Could Steal '24 Election - One America News

[1/12/2024] Stacy Washington NOW Rachel on from 24:10 – 31:46.

[12/23/2023] Propagaza – Laura-Lynn Tyler Thompson

View ALL

The Soros Agenda

g. soros

Soros: The Man Who Would Be Kingmaker, Part I

Rachel Ehrenfeld & Shawn Macomber

Soros: The Man Who Would Be Kingmaker, Part II

Soros: The Man Who Would be Kingmaker, Part III

Soros: The Man Who Would be Kingmaker, Part IV

More about Soros...
ORDER THE SOROS AGENDA →
Buy The Soros Agenda

Tags

antisemitism Caliphate Canada capital punishment China Christians Daniel Haqiqatjou Dawah Disinformation genocide Hamas Iran ISIS Islam Islamic Party of Ontario Islamic Relief Canada Islamization Islamophobia Israel J. Millard Burr Jews jihad Justin Trudeau LGBT liberalism Mazin AbdulAdhim Muslim Brotherhood Muslims NCCM Norman Bailey Palestine Political Islam Quran Russia Salaheddin Islamic Centre Saudi Arabia Sharia Sol W. Sanders SOROS Syria Terrorism Toronto US USA women's rights

Footer

About ACD

ACD is a New York-based 501(c)(3) not-for-profit organization, which monitors and exposes the enemies of freedom and their modus operandi, and explores pragmatic ways to counteract their methods.

Endorsements

"The ACD/EWI ability to predict future threats is second to none"

- R. James Woolsey, former Director of Central Intelligence

- - - More Endorsements - - -

Follow ACD!

  • facebook
  • twitter
  • youtube
  • linkedin

Copyright © 2025 | The American Center for Democracy is a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization. Your contribution is tax-deductible to the fullest extent of the law.