A Tale of Two Viennas*
By Norman A. Bailey
Tuesday, September 22nd, 2015 @ 11:33AM
Left: The EU’s Federica Mogherini (L), Iran’s Mohammad Javad Zarif, Russia’s Sergei Lavrov (R) in Vienna after the deal was signed. (Reuters/Leonhard Foeger)
VIENNA 1815: The great powers of Europe; Russia, Prussia, Great Britain and Austria, meet in Vienna with the representative of a France defeated, disarmed and occupied by foreign troops. That representative, Prince Charles-Maurice de Talleyrand, playing a dismally weak hand, managed to maintain France’s central position in Europe after a decade and a half of constant warfare, resulting in France’s final disastrous defeat. Talleyrand was later dubbed “The Prince of Diplomats”.
VIENNA 2015. The great powers: The United States, Russia, China, Germany, Great Britain and France meet with the representatives of The Islamic Republic of Iran, reeling from years of economic and financial sanctions and falling oil prices. Playing this weak hand, the principal Iranian negotiator, Mohammed Zarif, won his match with the six powers and put Iran on the unimpeded path to nuclear weapons, lifting of sanctions the return of frozen billions and regional hegemony.
Zarif is not a prince, but no one will be surprised if he is awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, along with the principal losing diplomat, John Kerry.
Iran is already taking advantage of its triumph, sending troops to Syria to bolster the collapsing Assad regime, with equipment supply guaranteed by the takeover of a military airfield by its informal ally, Russia. In the past, such convoys sent to resupply Hezbollah were intercepted and destroyed by the Israeli Air Force. In future, any such interception attempt may be met by Russian fighters, and it is highly unlikely that Israel will risk a military confrontation with Russia.
Prime Minister Netanyahu is in Moscow right now to try to convince President Putin to refrain from any such confrontation. The likelihood of success is slim. Between aligning Russia with Iran/Assad/Hezbollah, Russia assures its military presence in the eastern Mediterranean, through its new Latakia air base and its naval base in Tartus. By aligning himself with Israel, Putin achieves absolutely nothing.
In the meantime the Israeli political class amuses itself by admitting 20,000 indentured Chinese construction workers and delaying yet again enjoying the natural gas bonanza.
* Norman A. Bailey, Ph.D., is Adjunct Professor of Economic Statecraft at The Institute of World Politics, Washington, DC, and teaches at the Center for National Security Studies and Geostrategy, University of Haifa.
* This commentary will be published by globesonline.com
Norman A. Bailey
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